JPMorgan Projects 10% Annual Return for Bitcoin Over Next Decade, Withholds Buy Recommendation
Yahoo Finance ·
JPMorgan asset management analysts projected that Bitcoin will achieve an annualized return of 10% over the coming decade, potentially outpacing gold at 5.5%, Treasury bonds at 5.6%, and large-cap equities at 7.5%, according to a report published on October 19. This represents a notable tone shift given CEO Jamie Dimon's historic skepticism. However, the firm still does not advise purchasing Bitcoin for diversified portfolios due to its high volatility and unstable market correlations. In October 2025, Bitcoin peaked at just over $126,000, but by October 23, it was trading around $81,500, marking a roughly 35% decline from its record high. Analysts Sheena Shah and Dennis Cristallo categorized Bitcoin as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing, functioning largely as a high beta risk asset that tracks global money supply growth. While the base case forecasts a 10% return, the bear case warns of a 10% drop, and the bull case projects 17% growth over the next ten years.
AI 시장 분석
JP Morgan projected that Bitcoin will achieve an average annual return of 10% over the next decade, outperforming large-cap stocks (7.5%), bonds (5.6%), and gold (5.5%). However, it stated that inclusion in a diversified portfolio is still not recommended due to high volatility and speculative nature. Investors must simultaneously consider long-term growth potential and the risk of extreme price fluctuations.
상승 영향
- Bitcoin — JP Morgan forecasted an average annual return of 10% over the next decade, predicting it will surpass the returns of large-cap stocks, bonds, and gold.
DYAX 전담 분석
JP Morgan's report evaluated Bitcoin as a high-beta risk asset tied to global money supply growth capable of generating a 10% average annual return, while drawing the line on its unsuitability as a diversification tool due to the absence of cash flows and unstable correlations. It is showing high volatility, trading around the $81,500 level, down about 35% from its October 2025 peak of $126,000.
In addition to the base scenario (10% growth), possibilities for a bear scenario (10% decline) and a bull scenario (17% growth) coexist across future scenarios. Investors should closely monitor upcoming changes in monetary easing policies and Bitcoin's market correlation indicators.
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