Only Two Asset Classes Survived a Brutal September Market
Yahoo Finance ·
September proved to be a challenging month for equities, with the S&P 500 index retreating 0.3% and the broader U.S. stock market, tracked by the Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF, declining 0.8%. While historical trends suggest September is often tough for stocks, the widespread downturn across nearly all asset classes caught many market participants off guard. International equities in both developed and emerging regions lost ground. Simultaneously, fixed income instruments of all varieties slumped as global yields surged aggressively. The real estate sector faced severe pressure, as the Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF tumbled 6.2%, marking its worst monthly performance in nearly two years. Real estate investment trusts and property-related equities continue to struggle against the headwinds of escalating interest rates and climbing bond yields, which inflate borrowing costs and drive up mortgage rates, ultimately straining the housing market.
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In September, the S&P 500 fell 0.3% and the total US stock market dropped 0.8%, reflecting historical seasonality. Almost all asset classes, including bonds and global stocks, underperformed. Notably, REITs (VNQ) plunged 6.2%, marking their worst monthly performance in two years. Rising interest rates and surging Treasury yields directly hit the real estate market and funding costs.
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- Real Estate — Rising interest rates and bond yields surged REIT borrowing costs and mortgage rates, dealing a severe blow as the VNQ ETF fell 6.2%.
- Bonds — As global bond yields soared, prices of all types of bonds declined, resulting in poor investment performance.
- Stock Market — Combined with historically weak September seasonality, the S&P 500 fell 0.3% and the broader US stock market dropped 0.8%, creating a general bear market.
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Rising global interest rates and surging Treasury yields increased REIT borrowing costs and mortgage rates, causing real estate asset values to plummet. This acted as a causal factor that compressed liquidity across the asset market and increased downward pressure on traditional assets such as stocks and bonds.
The bullish scenario is that expectations of future rate cuts will emerge to ease financing costs, while the bearish scenario is that prolonged high interest rates will deepen REIT defaults and real estate market stagnation. Key indicators to watch are the US 10-year Treasury yield and the Federal Reserve's rate path.
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