Archer and Joby Aim to Be the EVTOL Teslas, But May End Up Like Lucid
Yahoo Finance ·
Archer Aviation and Joby Aviation represent the most prominent names in the United States electric vertical take-off and landing sector. However, the probability of either enterprise achieving profitability in the consumer market over the next five years remains exceptionally low, casting doubt on whether they can secure positive gross margins by the end of 2030. The operational path of luxury electric vehicle maker Lucid offers a valuable cautionary tale regarding the hurdles of scaling. In the second quarter, Lucid reported a 24 percent year-over-year increase in production to 4,774 vehicles, a 19 percent rise in deliveries to 3,953 units, and revenue surging 56 percent to roughly 405 million dollars. Nevertheless, its first-half cost of goods sold jumped to 1.43 billion dollars, driving its gross margin down to -112.6 percent compared to -101.3 percent previously. Despite manufacturing thousands of units quarterly, Lucid has failed to approach profitability. Meanwhile, Joby targets producing four aircraft monthly by 2027 and 500 annually over the long term, while Archer aims for 650 aircraft per year by 2030, though manufacturing updates remain scarce.
AI 시장 분석
eVTOL companies such as Archer Aviation (ACHR) and Joby Aviation (JOBY) face major challenges in scaling production and improving profitability. Like Lucid (LCID), despite innovative technology, there is a high risk of negative margins until 2030 due to supply chain issues and high cost of goods sold. Investors must closely examine their ability to control costs during mass production.
하락 영향
- Electric Vehicles — As seen in Lucid's case, supply chain issues and high costs during mass production worsened the first-half gross margin to -112.6%, delaying profitability.
- Aviation — eVTOL companies like Joby and Archer also face uncertain prospects for mass production and economies of scale by 2030, with a high risk of negative margins due to high manufacturing costs.
DYAX 전담 분석
Lucid recorded $687.8 million in revenue in the first half of this year, but its cost of goods sold reached $1.43 billion, worsening its gross margin to minus 112.6%. Such high fixed costs and delays in scaling production vividly demonstrate the structural limitations the eVTOL industry will face.
Despite future increases in production volume, failure to reduce unit costs will subject the stock to further downward pressure. On the other hand, supply chain stabilization and improvements in production efficiency will be key indicators for future valuation rebounds.
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