TSMC Jumps 3% on Reports of Up to 20% AI Packaging Price Hike

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Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing rose 3% following reports by the Commercial Times that the company plans to increase CoWoS advanced packaging prices by up to 20%. This potential adjustment impacts major clients like Nvidia and AMD, highlighting that market demand continues to outpace available foundry capacity. Equipment lead times have extended to six to eight months. Although the direct revenue impact from the pricing adjustment is modest, analysts view it as a clear signal of scarcity pricing power. Wall Street projections anticipate earnings per share to more than double from $10.65 in 2025 to $23.39 by 2027. Despite these growth expectations, the stock currently trades at approximately 17 times forward earnings, which sits below its five-year historical average of 18 times. The upcoming fourth-quarter financial report and 2027 outlook in mid-January will serve as a crucial catalyst for investors.

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Taiwan's TSMC saw its shares rise 3% amid reports that it plans to raise prices for AI semiconductor packaging (CoWoS) by up to 20%. This hike demonstrates that AI chip demand is exceeding supply capacity, raising expectations for TSMC's profitability improvement. Investors should examine the sustainability of AI demand through upcoming earnings reports and 2027 guidance.

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DYAX 전담 분석

Reports of TSMC's CoWoS packaging price hike of up to 20% prove the AI chip supply shortage and formidable pricing power, leading directly to TSMC's margin expansion. With advanced packaging revenue share expected to exceed 10% this year, this increase signifies a premium on scarcity rather than mere cost passthrough.

The bullish scenario is that major customers like NVDA and AMD absorb the costs, driving the achievement of 2027 EPS forecasts, while the bearish scenario is the risk that excessive capital expenditures (Capex) reaching $60B to $64B could lead to oversupply in the future. Indicators to watch are the Q4 earnings announcement scheduled for mid-January and the 2027 guidance.

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