Applied Materials Drops 7% Following Lam Research Supply Chain Guidance

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Applied Materials shares slid about 7.4% to trade near $380 after Lam Research pointed to short-term supply chain constraints impacting its December-quarter revenue outlook of $8.6 billion. Although Lam reported record September-quarter revenue of $8.22 billion, up 22% sequentially, CFO Doug Bettinger noted that guidance would have been slightly higher without logistical bottlenecks. Lam projected 2026 wafer fab equipment spending in the mid-$150 billion range and preliminary 2027 spending exceeding $200 billion. Following the sector-wide pullback, Applied Materials now trades at 23.19x forward earnings, well below its 30.80x historical average. Analysts project Applied's revenue to reach $46.37 billion in fiscal 2027, up from $34.26 billion in fiscal 2026, as investors await the company's upcoming earnings report on November 12 to clarify demand versus timing dynamics.

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Applied Materials shares faced downward pressure, plunging 7.4% in the wake of Lam Research mentioning supply chain constraints. Lam projected December quarter revenue at $8.6 billion, but guidance fell short of expectations due to supply bottlenecks. The market is overreacting to this as demand slowdown concerns rather than simple delivery delays, requiring investor caution.

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Lam Research's comments on supply chain constraints triggered selling across major semiconductor equipment and big tech stocks, including Applied Materials (down 7.4%), ASML (down 4%), and Nvidia. However, the outlook that wafer fab equipment (WFE) spending will exceed $200 billion by 2027 remains valid.

The bullish scenario is that the November 12 earnings release maintains the 2027 revenue outlook of $46.3 billion, highlighting the appeal of the current 23x valuation, while the bearish scenario is that supply chain disruptions persist, leading to downward revisions in earnings consensus. Key monitoring indicators are the resolution of supply chain issues and next-quarter guidance.

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