TSLA and SPCX Slip in Premarket Trading Following Musk Merger Talk and Earnings Call Criticism

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Tesla and SpaceX shares dropped 5% and 3% respectively in premarket trading on Thursday. The decline followed reports that CEO Elon Musk’s endorsement of a potential $3.5 trillion merger has complicated preliminary talks and triggered shareholder concerns that could delay discussions by several weeks. Former Rivian and Apple executive Phil Beisel criticized Tesla’s recent earnings call for overshadowing its solid fundamentals, suggesting the company should halt these calls entirely. Musk acknowledged the feedback, promising a more entertaining presentation next time. Meanwhile, Morningstar raised Tesla’s fair value estimate to $475 from $450, citing higher full self-driving adoption assumptions and reduced capital expenditure forecasts. Analysts remained divided over FSD demand, production constraints, and long-term delivery targets as the debate surrounding Musk's ambitious goals continued to draw intense market scrutiny.

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Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX (SPCX) pre-market shares fell 5% and 3%, respectively, following Elon Musk's mention of a SpaceX merger and a confusing earnings report. Concerns over delayed merger discussions and poor communication during the earnings call exerted downward pressure on the stock. However, Morningstar raised its fair value estimate to $475, citing rising FSD adoption rates and a lowered capital expenditure outlook.

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Musk's mention of a $3.5 trillion merger sparked shareholder concerns and regulatory scrutiny, increasing the likelihood that initial negotiations will be delayed by several weeks. Despite an improvement in ex-auto gross margins to 18.1% and an FSD subscription rate exceeding 75%, a lack of communication and production constraint issues combined to trigger a short-term stock correction.

The bullish scenario involves fundamental improvements driven by strong recurring revenue from FSD software and accelerated commercialization of autonomous driving and Optimus, which will propel the stock price. Conversely, the bearish scenario involves merger uncertainty and Musk's aggressive downward revision of targets (scaled back from 20 million to 5 million units by 2030) continuously stimulating disappointing sell-offs, necessitating close monitoring of future merger progress and FSD subscription trends.

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