Rational Tesla Bull Remains Upbeat on Cybercab Outlook Despite Capex Cut

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Despite Tesla slashing its capital expenditure plans by $5 billion during the recent earnings call, investor confidence in the long-term prospects of the Cybercab network remains unshaken. On Thursday, October 22, 2026, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco projected that the fleet size will reach 5 million vehicles by the end of 2040 under reasonable assumptions. CEO Elon Musk reported that the Cybercab fleet in Austin, Texas, has expanded tenfold since its launch roughly a month ago, with over 300 units currently operational. Cumulative unsupervised mileage surpassed nearly 2 million miles at the close of the third quarter, while operating hours in Austin stretch from 6 a.m. to midnight. Furthermore, Tesla intends to launch the service in Dallas this November. TSLA shares dropped 2.37 percent following the announcement, yet analysts continue to monitor unsupervised mileage and fleet density as critical metrics for commercial expansion.

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Despite Tesla cutting its capital expenditures by $5 billion in its recent earnings report, the number of Cybercabs operating in Austin increased tenfold in just one month, surpassing 300 units. Cumulative driverless mileage is approaching 2 million miles, and a Dallas expansion plan for November was also announced. This growth raises long-term growth expectations for the autonomous driving and robotaxi sectors.

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The commercialization speed of autonomous driving is accelerating as Tesla's Cybercab fleet in Austin surges to over 300 units and crosses the milestone of 2 million cumulative driverless miles. While bottlenecks such as software constraints and regulatory approvals remain, Morgan Stanley forecasts fleet expansion to 5 million units by 2040.

The bullish scenario is the early acceleration of regulatory approval driven by sustained increases in driverless miles and fleet density, while the bearish scenario is the deepening of regulatory barriers caused by software development delays and safety issues. Investors should monitor indicators such as the growth rate of driverless mileage and the expansion of regional operating hours.

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