Apple App Store Bounces Back in September, But October Holds Tougher Tests
Yahoo Finance ·
Apple Inc. saw its App Store revenue rise 5 percent year-over-year in September, recovering from zero growth in August, according to UBS. For the entire quarter, revenue increased about 2 percent. However, analyst David Vogt maintains a Neutral rating with a 296 dollar price target, noting that October presents a tougher test due to EU policy changes and stricter comparisons. Apple currently trades at a forward P/E of 37.69x, representing a 28 percent premium over its five-year average of 29.54x. While hedge fund interest stayed stable with 169 funds holding the stock in Q2 2026, and short interest remained low at 0.88 percent as of September 15, 2026, experts warn that one strong month is insufficient to justify the high valuation multiple.
AI 시장 분석
Apple's September App Store revenue rose 5% year-over-year, recovering from August's stagnation, but total quarterly growth remained at just 2%. UBS projected that starting in October, overlapping EU regulatory changes and a tough base effect will make proving earnings performance even more difficult. Currently, Apple trades at a forward P/E of 37.69x, a 28% valuation premium over its 5-year average, making additional growth drivers essential.
상승 영향
- AI — AI-related stocks, which offer relatively higher upside potential and lower downside risk compared to Apple's valuation burden, are attracting attention as alternatives for investors.
하락 영향
- Big Tech — While Apple trades at a high premium of 37.69x forward P/E, its App Store growth remains sluggish, increasing downside price pressure if EU regulations and worsening base effects take effect in October.
DYAX 전담 분석
The 5% rebound in September App Store revenue improved short-term sentiment, but was insufficient to completely overturn the overall low-growth trend. Particularly starting in October, policy changes in the EU App Store and an approximately 180 bps higher base effect will increase pressure on profitability.
In a bullish scenario, surprises in new premium devices and the services segment could justify the current high valuation (forward P/E of 37.69x). Conversely, in a bearish scenario, if growth slows again after October, there is a risk of a sharp stock correction due to the law of mean reversion, requiring close monitoring of EU region revenue trends and short interest (0.88%).
AI가 생성한 분석으로 투자 자문이 아닙니다.
DYAX Investor Sentiment
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