SPCX Climbs Near 10% Post-IPO as Analyst Projects 82% Upside Without Tesla Merger

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Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. have advanced nearly 10 percent from their initial public offering price, yet Bernstein SocGen Group believes substantial upside remains even if the firm falls short of its ambitious revenue targets and excludes any potential Tesla merger. Bernstein elevated its price target to 268 dollars from 248 dollars, reaffirming an outperform rating. The brokerage highlights terrestrial artificial intelligence expansion and orbital data centers as primary drivers toward a multi-trillion-dollar valuation. Terrestrial computing capacity is projected to hit 13 gigawatts by 2027 and expand to 20 gigawatts in 2028. Bernstein forecasts full-year 2028 revenue at 424 billion dollars. Furthermore, fourth-quarter capital expenditures are anticipated between 35 billion and 40 billion dollars, with compute payback periods remaining under one year. Crucially, these financial projections exclude any integration with Tesla or tower agreements.

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SPCX shares rose about 10% above their IPO price as Bernstein raised its price target to $268 without assuming a Tesla merger. Ground-based AI infrastructure buildout and orbital data center plans are expected to drive steep growth. Investors are focusing on the rapid payback period of under one year despite massive capital expenditures.

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Bernstein projects SPCX's total 2028 revenue at $424 billion, citing ground-based AI and orbital data center expansion as positive catalysts. Substantial capital expenditures are involved, with Q4 capital expenditures expected to reach $35 billion to $40 billion.

Future share prices will be determined by whether ground computing capacity achieves the 2028 target of 20 gigawatts and the commercialization success of orbital data centers. Maintaining high-performance computing pricing and a rapid payback period will serve as key momentum drivers.

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